Hottest year on record almost certain to occur by end of 2030, UN warns 

The hottest year since records began is almost certain to occur within the next five years, according to the weather agency of the United Nations.

In a report published on Thursday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned there is an 86 percent chance that one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record.

The WMO also said there is a 75 percent chance that the five-year average temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5C (2.7F) since the pre-industrial era, a threshold scientists warn could lead to more extreme weather conditions, including heatwaves and storms.

Under the Paris Agreement, which came into effect in November 2016, almost 200 countries agreed to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Scientists and environmentalists have long warned that the target, which aims to avoid the worst effects of climate change, is increasingly unlikely to be met. The goal is calculated over a 20-year period, meaning temporary breaches in a single year do not make the target of 1.5C unattainable.

The report also warns that temperatures in the Arctic — the second coldest region on Earth — are predicted to be 2.8C (5F) above the 1991–2020 average over the next five winters. If the estimate proves correct, it would mean the region is warming more than three and a half times faster than the global average.

Michael Jacobs, professor of political economy at the University of Sheffield, told Al Jazeera that countries need to work much harder to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement.

“This report reminds us of what too many politicians have been urging us to forget: that climate change is happening, it is getting worse, and the only way of slowing it down is to move as fast as possible to renewable energy and electrification,” Jacobs said.

“With the war in Iran having also reminded us of how volatile fossil fuel prices and supply now are, the world needs to accelerate, not abandon, its Paris Agreement commitments.”

The report also warned that rainfall is expected to increase in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia over the next five years, while the Amazon — commonly referred to as the “lungs of the Earth” — is forecast to be drier.

The warning comes as parts of Western Europe experience a heatwave, with temperatures reaching more than 35C (95F) in parts of the United Kingdom on Tuesday, breaking the country’s record for the hottest May temperature for a second consecutive day. Such temperatures are considered high by UK standards in mid-summer, let alone spring.

On Wednesday, the UN’s climate chief, Simon Stiell, said the extreme heat in Europe was a brutal reminder of the dangers posed by the climate crisis.

“The science is clear that human-induced climate change is making these heatwaves more frequent and extreme,” Stiell said.

“Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the many other soaring costs of climate change is core business for every nation, and it starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster.”