Japan’s PM Ishiba survives parliament vote, to lead minority government 

Japanese legislators have voted for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to stay on, after his scandal-tarnished coalition lost its parliamentary majority in a lower house election last month.

Following the parliament’s vote on Monday, Ishiba must run a fragile minority government as Donald Trump regains control in main ally the United States, tension rises with rivals China and North Korea, and domestic pressure mounts to rein in the cost of living.

Ishiba, 67, took office six weeks ago and held a snap election on October 27, hoping to shore up his mandate as leader of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

But voters, unhappy with inflation and a slush fund scandal that helped sink his predecessor Fumio Kishida, delivered a blow to the LDP and its junior coalition partner.

Japan’s opposition parties are divided on key issues, stopping them mounting a credible challenge to Ishiba. In a run-off – the first since 1994 – Ishiba won 221 votes against 160 for Yoshihiko Noda, head of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP). Eighty-four votes were discounted because they named other politicians.

“This chamber names Shigeru Ishiba… as the prime minister,” announced lower house speaker Fukushiro Nukaga, as Ishiba bowed to his fellow legislators who applauded.

Despite losing its majority in the October election, the LDP coalition remains the largest bloc in the 465-seat lower house.

The prime minister will announce a new cabinet later on Monday, which will be ceremonially approved by the emperor.

To have enough sway to pass legislation going forward, the ruling bloc has asked for help from the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), a small centrist group. The DPP has agreed to cooperate on a vote-by-vote basis while staying out of the coalition.

In talks with the LDP, the DPP has demanded tax cuts and energy subsidies that economists say would slash the government’s revenues.

“In order to stay in power, Ishiba needs to pass the government budget this winter,” Tomoaki Iwai, professor emeritus at Nihon University, told the AFP news agency. “It will mean the LDP will have to concede some of its policies to seek cooperation from others,” Iwai said.

Ishiba is reportedly trying to arrange a meeting with Trump later this month, around the time he travels to Peru for an economic summit.

Analysts have voiced concerns that possible fresh US tariffs on Chinese and Japanese goods under Trump may raise inflation. The Trump administration may also demand that Japan hike its defence spending, or push Japanese firms to expand their factories in the US.

“It must be Mr Ishiba who is feeling the toughest headache of Mr Trump’s victory,” Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, wrote in a note. Washington and domestic legislators are likely to press him for higher public spending and tax cuts at the same time, Kumano said.

Approval ratings for Ishiba’s government are just above 30 percent, but polls suggest a majority of the public saying he should remain prime minister.

Along with these negotiations, Ishiba must also contend with discontent within his party. The LDP, which has governed Japan for almost all its post-war history, lost dozens of seats – including ministers – in October’s election.

“Unless he improves his public support, those inside the LDP may start saying they cannot fight the upper house election under Ishiba” next year and look for another leader, Iwai said.

Noda pledged last week that the CDP would “work hard so we will make significant gains in the upper house election” in July.